eSWua IONOWORLD tool: single point TEC forecasting

Last modified at Sep 6th, 2023, 11:00 GMT

Description

A nonlinear autoregressive model with external input, NARX (Xie et al., 2009), is adopted and tuned for 24-h ahead TEC forecasting on 18 grid points chosen in order to cover different latitudinal sectors and different local time. NARX is a recurrent dynamic network, with feedback connections enclosing several layers of the network. It uses a supervised training method consisting in feeding the network with input/output examples to minimize the error function. In this case the external input for forecasting the vertical TEC (vTEC) at a given grid point is the geomagnetic index Kp, available several hours in advance (up to 3 days) from NOAA (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov). The TEC time series is obtained, for each grid points, by extracting vTEC for the considered grid point from Global Ionospheric Map (GIM) provided by the International GNSS Service (IGS) [1] in IONEX format with time resolution of 2 h. The Kp time series is obtained by interpolating 3-h resolution data to obtain a value of the Kp every 2 h. The interpolation method used is the nearest neighbor. [1]Hernández-Pajares M, Juan JM, Sanz J, Orus R, Garcia-Rigo A, Feltens J, Krankowski A. 2009. The IGS VTEC maps: a reliable source of ionospheric information since 1998. J Geod 83(3–4): 263–275. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-008-0266-1.

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Metadata Information
Editor Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
Version 1
Created Wednesday 6th Sept. 2023, 11:00
Last Modified Wednesday 6th Sept. 2023, 11:00